Saxo - 9 Sept 08 Tuesday

>> USD

"During the rallying phase of the EURUSD's history, the big round numbers served as important resting points along the way, yet we wonder if this is the case on the way down, as numbers previously traversed would seem to have less significance. Still, we watch 1.4000 with interest now, as it was a barrier on the way higher, even if many are talking up the 1.3700 area for good reason, as this area was twice very important resistance over the last few years - first towards the end of 2004 and then in the spring of 2007 before it gave way. Ahead of this level we have 80.00 in the USD Index, which more closely coincides with the 1.4000 level in EURUSD and is also a significant technical area stretching back years."


Summary: Highly Speculative Strength on the USD, Time Frame: Next 3 Months at least, Remark: I don't like putting up such a long "clip" as this is supposed to be a distilled version! However, with the undecided-ness in the market. This is about the best I can get. Everyone seems to be very sure that the USD is going UP UP UP. Yet, we are always reminded that when everything is 100% sure, it gets 100% wrong. So, I consider this a volatile season, wait out or be more conservative, unless you are skilled enough to swim these choppy seas.

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